IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v35y2012i7p816-837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Anders C. Johansson

Abstract

We use structural VAR models with short-run restrictions to analyze the potential transmission of China’s monetary policy shocks to equity markets in Southeast Asia. Our results show that several of the markets in the region are influenced by China’s monetary policy, even though the effect is modest. The impact of a monetary expansion in China is significant and positive for four of the five Southeast Asian equity markets, indicating an increase in demand for goods and services in both China and abroad, which in turn shows up in the foreign equity market. The results provide evidence of China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia and its financial markets. The transmission effect is still quite small, but can be expected to increase if the current trends of deepening economic integration between China and Southeast Asia and a maturing Chinese central bank continue.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Anders C. Johansson, 2012. "China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 816-837, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:7:p:816-837
    DOI: j.1467-9701.2012.01435.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01435.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/j.1467-9701.2012.01435.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anders Johansson, 2010. "China's financial market integration with the world," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 293-314.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    3. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    4. Shigeto Nagai & Hong Wang, 2007. "Money Market Operations in China: Monetary Policy or FX Policy?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    5. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    6. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    8. Jill Ann Holman & Rebecca Neumann, 2002. "Evidence on the cross-country transmission of monetary shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1837-1857.
    9. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    10. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    11. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    12. Caroline Schmidt, 2006. "International transmission effects of monetary policy shocks: can asymmetric price setting explain the stylized facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 205-218.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    14. H. Brooks , Douglas & Hua, Changchun, 2009. "Asian Trade and Global Linkages," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 103-128.
    15. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    16. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    17. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Erratum to "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market": [Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 214-244]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-208, October.
    18. JOHANSSON, Anders C., 2009. "Is U.S. money causing China's output?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 732-741, December.
    19. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    20. Tomasz Koluk & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(1), pages 121-145, January.
    21. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    22. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    23. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    2. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 49153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "Chinese monetary expansion and the U.S. economy: A note‎," MPRA Paper 46961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    5. Mohd Azlan Shah Saidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Zurina Kefeli@Zulkefli, 2018. "Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 25-44.
    6. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming & Zhuang, Ziguan, 2023. "The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Yiping Huang & Peichu Xie & Jiao Wang, 2014. "International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(2), pages 276-296, July.
    8. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    9. Kee Tuan Teng & Siew Hwa Yen & Soo Y. Chua, 2013. "The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
    10. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Liquidity expansion in China and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 59338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "International transmission of monetary shocks to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 131-141.
    12. Anupam Nanda & Jia-Huey Yeh, 2016. "International Transmission Mechanisms and Contagion in Housing Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 1005-1024, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohd Azlan Shah Saidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Zurina Kefeli@Zulkefli, 2018. "Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 25-44.
    2. Caroline Schmidt, 2006. "International transmission effects of monetary policy shocks: can asymmetric price setting explain the stylized facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 205-218.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2019. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: evidence from a time varying parameter global vector auto‐regressive model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(3), pages 831-861, June.
    4. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    5. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2012. "The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Working Papers hal-04141067, HAL.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    7. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 49153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "International transmission of monetary shocks to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 131-141.
    9. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Chinese Monetary Expansion and the US Economy," Working Papers 16874, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 05 Aug 2013.
    10. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Wagan, Hakimzadi & Akbar, Farhan, 2013. "The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-116.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    12. Konstantins Benkovskis & Andrejs Bessonovs & Martin Feldkircher & Julia Wörz, 2011. "The Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Shocks to the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary: Evidence from a FAVAR Model," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-36.
    13. Martin Feldkircher & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 859-893, August.
    14. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    15. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    16. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    17. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    18. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218.
    19. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
    20. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:7:p:816-837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.