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A Tourism Conditions Index

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Hui-Kuang Hsu

    (Department of Finance and Banking National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.)

Abstract

This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators to predict specific tourism and economic environmental indicators for Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the Composite Index (CI), an economic environmental indicator, than the Tourism Industry Index (TII), which is an existing indicator for the tourism industry that is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Moreover, previous values of the alternative TCI and TII are shown to contain useful information in predicting both tourism and economic environmental factors. Overall, the new Tourism Conditions Index is straightforward to use and also provides useful insights in predicting tourism arrivals and the current economic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2014. "A Tourism Conditions Index," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1401
    Note: For financial support, the first author is most grateful to the National Science Council, Taiwan, and the third author wishes to acknowledge the Australian Research Council and the National Science Council, Taiwan. **Corresponding author: changchialin@nchu.edu.tw Tel: +886 (04)22840350 ext 309; Fax: +886(04)22860255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
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    7. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know about the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Conditions Index (MCI); Financial Conditions Index (FCI); Tourism Conditions Index (TCI); BEKK; Spillovers; Granger causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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