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News and knowledge capital

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  • Alok Johri

    (McMaster University)

  • Christopher Gunn

    (McMaster University)

Abstract

We show that a model with knowledge capital can generate business cycles driven by expectations of future movement in total factor productivity (TFP). These cycles are characterized by a boom in which consumption, investment, output and hours-worked all rise in advance of any movement in TFP. We model knowledge capital as an input into production which is endogenously produced through a learning-by-doing process. When firms receive news of an impending productivity increase, the value of knowledge capital rises, inducing the firm to hire more hours to "invest" in knowledge capital. The rise in the value of knowledge capital immediately raises the value of the firm, causing an appreciation in share prices, a feature that has empirical support. The increase in output of the firm allows both consumption and investment to rise despite the absence of any contemporaneous productivity shock. If the expected increase in productivity fails to materialize, the model generates a recession as well as a crash in the stock market. (Copyright: Elsevier)

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 763.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:763

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  1. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
  2. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christopher Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News and knowledge capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 92-101, January.
  4. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
  6. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-Andre, 2007. "What do `residuals' from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2744-2773, August.
  7. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
  8. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2005. "Modeling and Measuring Organization Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1026-1053, October.
  9. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
  10. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  11. Diego A. Comin & Mark Gertler & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2009. "Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Alok Johri & Amartya Lahiri, 2008. "Persistent Real Exchange Rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, McMaster University.
  13. Chang, Yongsung & Gomes, Joao F & Schorfheide, Frank, 2002. "Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 3599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," NBER Working Papers 10776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling U.S. Boom in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 13499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Rosen, Sherwin, 1972. "Learning by Experience as Joint Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 366-82, August.
  17. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  18. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  20. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 57-86, October.
  21. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
  22. Barro, Robert J & King, Robert G, 1984. "Time-separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-39, November.
  23. Clarke, Andrew J., 2006. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations: Does the form of the accumulation technology matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 434-439, September.
  24. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
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