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Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey

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  • KETENCI, Natalya

Abstract

This paper estimates the tourism demand model for Turkey from 14 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. Different approaches were used to find cointegration in the considered model for the period from 1996 to 2000 on a monthly basis. From our results we found evidence at the high significance level of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. We found that income plays a more important role in the holiday-making decisions of tourists than the relative prices of the holiday destination. Inclusion in the model substitution destination decreased the degree of significance of relative Turkish prices in the demand model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:1_6

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Related research

Keywords: tourism demand; elasticity; cointegration; vector error correction.;

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References

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  1. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  4. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  7. Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 1998. " Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-78, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Lopez-Guzman, T & Hernandez-Mogollon, J.M & Di Clemente, E, 2014. "Gastronomic Tourism as a Motor of Local and Regional Development," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 95-104.

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