IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ere/journl/vxxxixy2020i1p21-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González

    (Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México.)

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza con un enfoque poskeynesiano la sobre-sensibilidad y las asimetrías ante choques de ingreso del consumo privado y su desagregación en bienes duraderos, semi-duraderos, no-duraderos y los servicios en México para el período 1995-2017. Para estimar la sobresensibilidad se utilizan las metodologías de cointegración de Johansen-Juselius y el método de estimación FMOLS, sin sesgo de endogeneidad de Phillips y Hansen. Para las asimetrías se aplican las pruebas de Seo y Hansen-Seo de cointegración, con regímenes múltiples (cointegración-threshold) y modelos TVECM de vectores de corrección de error, con regímenes múltiples de Seo. Con los resultados se comprueba la existencia de sobre-sensibilidad del consumo privado y del consumo de la mayoría de los bienes por durabilidad (nacional e importado) y comportamientos asimétricos de régimen bajo, consistente con un escenario de crisis económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González, 2020. "Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 21-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxix:y:2020:i:1:p:21-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxix/1/2_Mendoza_Sensibilidad.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    3. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    4. Surico, Paolo & Bunn, Philip & Reinold, Kate & LeRoux, Jeanne, 2017. "The Consumption Response to Positive and Negative Income Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Correction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    7. Marc Lavoie, 1994. "A Post Keynesian Approach to Consumer Choice," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 539-562, July.
    8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    12. Jeanne Commault, 2016. "How Does Nondurable Consumption Respond To Transitory Income Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Structural Estimations," Working Papers hal-01328904, HAL.
    13. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne & Stefano Cavaglia & Alison Tarditi, 1992. "Financial Liberalisation and Consumption Behaviour," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9209, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Ludwig, Johannes, 2015. "Is there heterogeneity in the response of consumption to income shocks?," Ruhr Economic Papers 595, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Correction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
    18. Lucía A. Ruiz-Galindo & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2007. "Un modelo macroeconométrico de simulación con microfundamentos para la economía mexicana," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 165-217, July-Dece.
    19. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, August.
    20. Sushanta K. Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflationary Shocks with Durable and Non-Durable Consumption," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 895-921, November.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
    23. Campos, Raymundo M. & Meléndez, Álvaro, 2013. "Una estimación semiparamétrica de las pautas de consumo e ingreso a lo largo del ciclo de vida para México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(320), pages .805-840, octubre-d.
    24. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    25. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    26. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 188-202, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    2. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    4. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    5. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
    6. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 117-141.
    7. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    8. de Mello Luiz & Moccero Diego & Mogliani Matteo, 2013. "Do Latin American Central Bankers Behave Non-Linearly? The Experiences of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 141-165, April.
    9. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2017. "Drivers of India’s current account deficits, with implications for ameliorating them," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 23-32.
    10. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    11. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    12. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    14. Hassouneh, Islam & Couleau, Anabelle & Serra, Teresa & Al-Sharif, Iqbal, 2018. "The effect of conflict on Palestine, Israel, and Jordan stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 258-266.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    17. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Koçak, Emrah & Önderol, Seyit & Khan, Kamran, 2021. "Structural change, modernization, total factor productivity, and natural resources sustainability: An assessment with quantile and non-quantile estimators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    20. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    21. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sobre-sensibilidad del consumo; Asimetrías a choques de ingreso; Cointegración con regímenes múltiples; Modelos VECM con regímenes múltiples; TVECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxix:y:2020:i:1:p:21-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dora María Vega Facio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feualmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.