IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v59y2002i1p197-205.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Lim, Christine
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between the demand for international travel to Australia from Malaysia and a group of leading macroeconomic variables, including Malaysian income, tourism prices in Australia, transportation costs between Malaysia and Australia, and the exchange rate between the two countries. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) procedure is used to test for unit roots, while Johansen’s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. A single cointegrating relationship is found among the set of non-stationary macroeconomic variables, and is compared with the ordinary least squares estimates. It is found that lagged changes in real airfares, and the extent to which the system is out of equilibrium, are statistically significant. Surprisingly, real income does not seem to have a significant effect on tourism demand from Malaysia to Australia when the cointegration technique is used. However, real income (as measured by the logarithm of real private consumption expenditures per capita) is significant when ordinary least squares estimation is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 197-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:59:y:2002:i:1:p:197-205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475401004086
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    4. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andraz, Jorge M. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2016. "Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-7.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A Tourism Financial Conditions Index for Tourism Finance," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    4. Gabriela Mordecki & Ana Leiva & Nathalie Desplas, 2016. "Tourism demand for Mexico and Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    7. Ambachew Mekonnen Sisay, 2011. "Determinants of private investment in Ethiopia: a time series study," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), September.
    8. Nanthakumar Loganathan & Ang Shy Han & Mori Kogid, 2013. "Demand for Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand Tourist to Malaysia:Seasonal Unit Root and Multivariate Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(2), pages 15-23, Februray.
    9. KETENCI, Natalya, 2010. "Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    10. Ronald Kumar & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Arvind Patel & Radika Kumar, 2015. "Nexus between tourism earnings and economic growth: a study of Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1120, May.
    11. Muhammad Shafiullah & Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2019. "Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 274-296, March.
    12. Ambachew, Mekonnen Sisay, 2011. "Determinants of Private Investment in Ethiopia: a Time Series Study," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 180-180, September.
    13. Seetaram, Neelu, 2012. "Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1535-1543.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. André Kallåk Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' Before the Great Recession?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5347, CESifo.
    2. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money Demand Estimations in Mexico and of its Stability 1986-2010, as well as Some Examples of its Uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    3. Fassil Fanta, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, excess liquidity and stability of money demand (M3) in Australia," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 325-344.
    4. Fatih Ozatay, 1992. "The Role of Public Sector Prices in Price Dynamics in Turkey and the Lucas Critique," Discussion Papers 9208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    6. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    8. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    9. Dimpfl, Thomas, 2014. "A note on cointegration of international stock market indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 10-16.
    10. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Lee, Chingnun & Shie, Fu Shuen & Chang, Chiao Yi, 2012. "How close a relationship does a capital market have with other such markets? The case of Taiwan from the Asian financial crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 349-362.
    12. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    14. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    16. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    17. Baffes, John & Gohou, Gaston, 2005. "The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3534, The World Bank.
    18. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    19. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    21. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:59:y:2002:i:1:p:197-205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.