This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
De Grauwe, Paul
Polan, Magdalena
Abstract

Using a sample of about 160 countries over the last thirty years we test for the quantity theory relationship between money and inflation. When analysing the full sample of countries we find a strong positive relation between the long-run inflation and money growth rate. The relation is not, however, proportional. The strong link between inflation and money growth is almost wholly due to the presence of high (or hyper-) inflation countries in the sample. The relationship between inflation and money growth for low inflation countries (on average less than 10% per annum over the last 30 years) is weak. We find that the long-run average inflation and country-specific factors have a significant influence on the strength of the relationship. We also confirm that money growth and output growth are orthogonal in the long-run; i.e. higher growth rates of money do not lead to higher growth rates of output.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP2841.asp
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2841.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2841

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Money; Quantity Theory of Money;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bruce D. Smith, 1988. "The relationship between money and prices: some historical evidence reconsidered," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 18-32. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vogel, Robert C, 1974. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America, 1950-1969," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 102-14, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43. [Downloadable!]
  7. Neil Wallace, 1998. "A dictum for monetary theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 20-26. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. George T. McCandless, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  10. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1988. "Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-374. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: how long is the long run?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug 1. [Downloadable!]
  12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB's Money Pillar: An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tobias Broer & Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Money As An Inflation Indicator In Chile: Does P* Still Work?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 293, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001419, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jorge Hermann & Rómulo Chumacero, 2005. "No Estaba Muerta, ...: La Teoría Cuantitativa y la Relación entre Dinero e Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 324, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jose De Gregorio, 2004. "Rapid Growth Of Monetary Aggregates And Inflation: The International Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 256, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pablo García S & Rodrigo Valdés, 2003. "Dinero y Conducción de la Política Monetaria con Metas de Inflación," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 09, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tobías Broer, 2005. "Money as an indicator for inflation and output in Chile - not anymore?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 319, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación en el Marco de Metas de Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 198, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carlos J. Rodriguez-Fuentes & Antonio Olivera-Herrera & David Padron-Marrero, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation persistence in the Eurozone," ERSA conference papers ersa04p218, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  13. John C. Frain, 2004. "Inflation and Money Growth - Evidence from a Multi-Country Data-Set," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 251-266. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Waltraud Schelkle, 2003. "A Mixed Blessing: Monetary Enlargement within the Maastricht Policy Framework," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 624-635.
  15. Pablo García & Rodrigo Valdés, 2003. "Dinero y Conducción de la Política Monetaria con Metas de Inflación," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 698-706. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jose De Gregorio, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación: ¿En Qué Estamos?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 201, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 journals are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.