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On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics

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Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

A number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning "long runt" economic relationships by means of frequency-domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency co-movements of variables.The present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions involve expectational relationships that are not inherently related to specific frequencies or periodicities. Thus the association of low-frequency time series test statistics with long-run economic propositions is not generally warranted. That such an association can be misleading is demonstrated by analysis of examples taken from notable papers by Geweke, Lucas, and Summers.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1162.

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Date of creation: Dec 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1162

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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  4. Bennet T. McCallum, 1984. "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 138-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Behzad T. Diba & Seonghwan Oh, 1989. "Money, Inflation, and the Expected Real Interest Rate," UCLA Economics Working Papers 548, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ramsey, J.B. & Lampart, C., 1997. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets," Working Papers 97-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kajal Lahiri & T. S. Chun, 1989. "Some Tests For Unbiasedness In The Long Run Using Survey Data," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 27-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "Optimal Time Interval Selection in Long-Run Correlation Estimation," Econometrics 0511017, EconWPA, revised 27 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luca Benati, . "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Stefania Lionetti & Juan Gabriel Brida & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2008. "Long run economic growth and tourism: inferring from Uruguay," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0901, Biblioteca universitaria di Lugano (University Library of Lugano). [Downloadable!]
  9. Julio J. Rotemberg & John C. Driscoll & James M. Poterba, 1996. "Money, Output and Prices: Evidence from A New Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 3824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jakob B. Madsen, 2004. "Pitfalls in Estimates of Relationship between Share Returns and Inflation," FRU Working Papers 2004/07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  11. De Grauwe, Paul & Polan, Magdalena, 2001. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2841, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1988. "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect Revisited," NBER Working Papers 2784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Juan Gabriel Brida & Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso, 2008. "Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  14. Silvia London & Juan Gabriel Brida & Wiston Adrian Risso, 2008. "Human capital and innovation: a model of endogenous growth with a “skill-loss effect”," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 15(7), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
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