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Determinantes de la Inflación en una Economía Dolarizada: El Caso Ecuatoriano
[Determinants of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Ecuador]

Author

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  • Gachet, Ivan
  • Maldonado, Diego
  • Pérez, Wilson

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a structural VAR model to identify the causes of inflation in Ecuador. To examine the VAR dynamics, we use the decomposition of the variance because it provides information about the relative importance of each shock to the variables in the VAR. We differ from previous studies because we are able not only to identify the impact of each exogenous variable on the inflation rate but also to estimate the inflation rate from the exogenous variables in the model. We found that on the first quarter of 2008 the annual inflation rate in Ecuador was mainly caused by international prices, exchange rates and public policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Pérez, Wilson, 2008. "Determinantes de la Inflación en una Economía Dolarizada: El Caso Ecuatoriano [Determinants of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Ecuador]," MPRA Paper 17101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    2. Dhakal, Dharmendra & Kandil, Magda & Sharma, Subhash C. & Trescott, Paul B., 1994. "Determinants of the inflation rate in the United States: A VAR investigation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-112.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    8. Seymen, Atilim, 2008. "A Critical Note on the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta & Marco Vega, 2006. "A BVAR Forecasting Model for Peruvian Inflation," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 117-141, July-Dece.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008 [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009 [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; SVAR; Inflation; Time Series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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