Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Market bubbles and crashes

Contents:

Author Info

  • T. Kaizoji
  • D. Sornette

Abstract

Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes and effects. This review and essay evaluates some of the hypotheses offered to explain the market crashes that often follow asset price bubbles. Starting from historical accounts and syntheses of past bubbles and crashes, we put the problem in perspective with respect to the development of the efficient market hypothesis. We then present the models based on heterogeneous agents and the limits to arbitrage that prevent rational agents from bursting bubbles before they inflate. Then, we explore another set of explanations of why rational traders would be led to actually profit from and surf on bubbles, by anticipating the behavior of noise traders or by realizing the difficulties in synchronizing their actions. We then end by discussing a complex system approach of social imitation leading to collective market regimes like herding and the phenomenon of bifurcation (or phase transition) that rationalize what crash can occur in unstable market regimes. The key insight is that diagnosing bubbles may be feasible when taking into account the positive feedback mechanisms that give rise to transient "super-exponential" price growth, the bubbles.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0812.2449
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0812.2449.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0812.2449

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
  2. W. A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to Randomness in the Economy: Emergent Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economics and Finance," Working Papers, Santa Fe Institute 93-02-006, Santa Fe Institute.
  3. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
  4. L. Blume, 2010. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Levine's Working Paper Archive 488, David K. Levine.
  5. Utpal Bhattacharya, 2008. "The Causes and Consequences of Recent Financial Market Bubbles: An Introduction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 3-10, January.
  6. Blume Lawrence E., 1995. "The Statistical Mechanics of Best-Response Strategy Revision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-145, November.
  7. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  8. S.G. Badrinath & Sunil Wahal, 2002. "Momentum Trading by Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2449-2478, December.
  9. Almazan, Andres & Brown, Keith C. & Carlson, Murray & Chapman, David A., 2004. "Why constrain your mutual fund manager?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 289-321, August.
  10. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Diagnostics of Rational Expectation Financial Bubbles with Stochastic Mean-Reverting Termination Times," Papers 0911.1921, arXiv.org.
  2. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1173, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, . "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  4. Celia Anteneodo & Silvio M. Duarte Queiros, 2009. "Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusion," Papers 0910.1394, arXiv.org.
  5. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.
  6. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, . "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0812.2449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.