This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Carriero, A.
Kapetanios, G.
Marcellino, M.

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Models based on economic theory have serious problems forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis-a-vis the US Dollar. Since exchange rates tend to co-move, a large set of them can contain useful information for forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is strong evidence of them in the data. We produce forecasts for all 33 exchange rates in the panel, and show that our model produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at all forecast horizons, including 1-step-ahead.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4VP5X94-3/2/ec22882f2b87a67d6c4f8846c3eb97a1
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 400-417
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:2:p:400-417

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates Forecasting Bayesian VAR;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors - Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 700, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1996. "Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    Other versions:
  14. R.-P. Berben & D.J.C. van Dijk, 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Report 145, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  16. Zwart, G.J. de & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," Research Paper ERS-2007-096-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
    Other versions:
  18. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Error Correction Models," Discussion Papers 09-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2009. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," Working Papers 09.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS is also providing many rankings, for example of authors and institutions.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.