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Monetary Policy Shocks and Economic Growth in Morocco: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach
[Chocs de politique monétaire et croissance économique au Maroc : Une approche de type FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression)]

Author

Listed:
  • Marouane Daoui

    (FSJES-Fès - Faculté des sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès)

  • Bouchra Benyacoub

    (FSJES-Fès - Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès)

Abstract

In response to the empirical anomalies relating to the use of VAR models in analysing the impact of monetary policy shocks, the Factor-Augmented VAR (FAVAR) models attempt to provide a practical solution. Moreover, these models, based on dynamic factor models (DFM), make it possible to summarize the information present in a large database into a small number of factors common to all the variables. In this paper, we analyse the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic growth using the FAVAR model on a large number of Moroccan macroeconomic time series (117 quarterly time series from 1985Q1 to 2018Q4). First, we present the econometric framework of the FAVAR model, then the data used and their necessary transformations. Next, we determine the number of factors before estimating the model. Then, we focus on the analysis of the impulse response functions of some indicators of economic growth in Morocco. The results of the analysis indicate that, the overall decline in GDP in response to monetary policy shocks suggests that they have a clearly negative impact on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marouane Daoui & Bouchra Benyacoub, 2021. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Economic Growth in Morocco: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach [Chocs de politique monétaire et croissance économique au Maroc : Une approche de ty," Post-Print hal-03277727, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277727
    DOI: 10.9790/5933-1202010111
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03277727
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Amengual, Dante & Watson, Mark W., 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 91-96, January.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Literature Review," Papers 2303.03162, arXiv.org.
    2. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR," Papers 2302.14114, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; Economic growth; Dynamic factor model; FAVAR; Morocco;
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