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Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement

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  • Robert C. Johnson

Abstract

Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multi-sector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade- comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (a) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (b) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (c) inputs are substitutable for primary factors.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18240.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Publication status: forthcoming in The American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18240

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2013. "How Did Exchange Rates Affect Employment in US Cities?," Working Papers 2013-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  2. Jörn Kleinert & Julien Martin & Farid Toubal, 2012. "The few leading the many: foreign affiliates and business cycle comovement," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 116, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Luciana Juvenal, Luciana; Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2010. "Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 31, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  4. Christopher Kurz & Mine Z. Senses, 2013. "Importing, Exporting And Firm-Level Employment Volatility," Working Papers 13-31, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  5. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country-Sector Level," NBER Working Papers 20236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Garbellini, Nadia, 2014. "International division of labour and countries’ competitiveness: the case of Italy and Germany," MPRA Paper 56542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Christopher Kurz & Mine Z. Senses, 2013. "Importing, exporting and firm-level employment volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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