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Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization

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  • Costas Arkolakis
  • Ananth Ramanarayanan

Abstract

We explore the impact of vertical specialization—trade in goods across multiple stages of production—on the relationship between trade and international business cycle synchronization. We develop a model in which the degree of vertical specialization is endogenously determined by comparative advantage across heterogeneous goods and varies with trade barriers between countries. We show analytically that fluctuations in measured productivity in our model are not linked across countries through trade, despite the greater transmission of technology shocks implied by higher degrees of vertical specialization. In numerical simulations, we find this transmission is insufficient in generating substantial dependence of business cycle synchronization on trade intensity.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 21.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:21

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Keywords: Business cycles ; International trade;

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  1. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
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  15. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
  2. Luciana Juvenal, Luciana; Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2010. "Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 31, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  3. Wei Liao & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," Working Papers 042012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joe Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2012. "Trade, Inventories, and International Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 762, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2011. "International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 302-316.
  6. Matteo Cacciatore, 2012. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Labor Market Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "International Supply Chains And The Volatility Of Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2110-2124, October.
  8. Pundit,Madhavi, 2013. "Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods," Working Papers 13/116, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
  10. Jacob Wibe, 2012. "The Role of Production Sharing and Trade in the Transmission of the Great Recession," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20123, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
  11. Andrei Zlate, 2010. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," International Finance Discussion Papers 995, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Ewa Szymanik, 2012. "Business Cycles and Their International Transmission – the Introduction to the Problem," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 55-72.
  13. Ana Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 34, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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