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Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization

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  • Costas Arkolakis
  • Ananth Ramanarayanan

Abstract

We explore the impact of vertical specialization—trade in goods across multiple stages of production—on the relationship between trade and international business cycle synchronization. We develop a model in which the degree of vertical specialization is endogenously determined by comparative advantage across heterogeneous goods and varies with trade barriers between countries. We show analytically that fluctuations in measured productivity in our model are not linked across countries through trade, despite the greater transmission of technology shocks implied by higher degrees of vertical specialization. In numerical simulations, we find this transmission is insufficient in generating substantial dependence of business cycle synchronization on trade intensity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 21.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:21

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Keywords: Business cycles ; International trade;

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim Ruhl, 2008. "Data Appendix to "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?"," Technical Appendices 07-40, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  3. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
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  5. David Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 79-99.
  6. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
  7. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," 2004 Meeting Papers 530, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
  10. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
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  16. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 508, Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. Krugman, Paul R & Venables, Anthony J, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-80, November.
  18. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
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  22. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?," Staff Report 391, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2007. "Outsourcing and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Cacciatore, 2012. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Labor Market Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Paulo Santos Monteiro & Luciana Juvenal, 2012. "Trade and Synchronization in a Multi Country Economy," 2012 Meeting Papers 59, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Wei Liao & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," Working Papers 042012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2011. "International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 302-316.
  5. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
  6. Jacob Wibe, 2012. "The Role of Production Sharing and Trade in the Transmission of the Great Recession," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20123, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
  7. Ana Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 34, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Benjamin Bridgman, 2010. "International Supply Chains and the Volatility of Trade," BEA Working Papers 0059, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  10. Pundit,Madhavi, 2013. "Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods," Working Papers 13/116, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  11. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joe Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2012. "Trade, Inventories, and International Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 762, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Andrei Zlate, 2010. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," International Finance Discussion Papers 995, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Ewa Szymanik, 2012. "Business Cycles and Their International Transmission – the Introduction to the Problem," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 55-72.

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