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Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?

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Author Info
Timothy J. Kehoe (University of Minnesota)
Kim J. Ruhl (University of Texas, Austin)

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Abstract

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real GDP. The terms of trade do affect real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2008.04.001
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 804-819
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:07-40

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Related research
Keywords: Terms of trade; Gross domestic product; Total factor productivity; National income accounting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. W.E. Diewert & Catherine J. Morrison, 1985. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 1564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2004. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," NBER Working Papers 10866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2007. "Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 13017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2005. "Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 759-775, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Trejos, Alberto & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes, 2008. "Trade in intermediate goods and total factor productivity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 676, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Staff Report 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Claudia S. Gómez-López & Luis A.Puch, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of International Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers 2008-27, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2007. "The labor market effects of technology shocks," Banco de España Working Papers 0719, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Staff Report 401, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. repec:bep:macadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1593-1593 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  8. Canova, Fabio & López-Salido, J David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2008. "The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Raimundo Soto, 2008. "Unemployment and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Latin American Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 337, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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