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Long-Run Trade Elasticity and the Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Lukasz A. Drozd
  • Sergey Kolbin
  • Jaromir B. Nosal

Abstract

We show that the trade-comovement puzzle - theory's failure to account for the positive relation between trade and business cycle synchronization - is intimately related to its counterfactual implication that short- and long-run trade elasticities are equal. Based on this insight, we show that modeling the disconnect between the low short- and the high long-run trade elasticity in consistency with the data is promising in resolving the puzzle. In a broader context, our findings are relevant for analyzing business cycle transmission in a large class of models and caution against the use of static elasticity models in cross-country studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz A. Drozd & Sergey Kolbin & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2017. "Long-Run Trade Elasticity and the Trade-Comovement Puzzle," Working Papers 17-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:17-42
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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2017/wp17-42.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2019. "Estimating the trade elasticity over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 655-680, December.
    3. Lisack, Noemie & Lloyd, Simon & Sajedi, Rana, 2022. "Aggregation across each nation: aggregator choice and macroeconomic dynamics," Bank of England working papers 982, Bank of England.
    4. Michael B. Devereux & Wei Dong & Ben Tomlin, 2019. "Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products," NBER Working Papers 26314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade-comovement puzzle; elasticity puzzle; international business cycle synchronization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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