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Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?

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Author Info
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

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Abstract

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are> exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price> of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a> change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that> this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then> generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on> productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real GDP. The terms of trade do affect> real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change> with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 391.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:391

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Keywords: Gross domestic product ; National income ; Productivity;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. W.E. Diewert & Catherine J. Morrison, 1985. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 1564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2004. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," NBER Working Papers 10866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2007. "Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 13017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2005. "Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 759-775, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Trejos, Alberto & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes, 2008. "Trade in intermediate goods and total factor productivity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 676, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Canova, Fabio & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2007. "The Labour Market Effects of Technology Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2007. "Factor Utilization and the Real Impact of Financial Crises," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1593-1593. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Claudia S. Gómez-López & Luis A.Puch, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of International Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers 2008-27, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Staff Report 401, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Canova, Fabio & López-Salido, J David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2008. "The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Raimundo Soto, 2008. "Unemployment and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Latin American Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 337, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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