The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
AbstractThis paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomic idiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, it shows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregate volatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages. Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importance of different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as their role as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnections capture the possibility of cascade effects whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectly to the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility is obtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetry in the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the sparseness of the input-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.
Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Other versions of this item:
- Daron Acemoglu & Vasco Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2011. "The network origins of aggregate fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 1291, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman E. Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000359, David K. Levine.
- Daron Acemoglu & Vasco Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2011. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 587, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
- D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vasco M. Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2010.
"The Great Diversification and its Undoing,"
NBER Working Papers
16424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2010. "The great diversification and its undoing," Economics Working Papers 1208, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
- Carvalho, Vasco M & Gabaix, Xavier, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," CEPR Discussion Papers 8044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Gabaix & Vasco M. Carvalho, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," 2010 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ballester, Coralio & Calvó-Armengol, Antoni & Zenou, Yves, 2005.
"Who’s Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvo-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2005. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: the Key Player," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 666156000000000586, www.najecon.org.
- Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player," Working Papers 178, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2006. "Log(Rank-1/2): A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2106, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2007.
"Rank-1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2011.
"The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, 05.
- Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1 - 38.
- Antonio Ciccone, 2002.
"Input Chains and Industrialization,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 565-587.
- Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasco Carvalho, 2007.
"Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade,"
Economics Working Papers
1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
- Vasco M Carvalho, 2008. "Aggregate Fluctuations and the Network Structure of Intersectoral Trade," 2008 Meeting Papers 1062, Society for Economic Dynamics.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.