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Supervisory shocks to banks' credit standards and their macroeconomic impact

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  • Lucidi, Francesco Simone
  • Semmler, Willi

Abstract

Credit standards reported in the Bank Lending Surveys (BLS) of the European Central Bank (ECB) summarize banks’ sentiment about credit market tightness, and they strongly comove with credit growth. This paper introduces a new external instrument that captures an exogenous source of variation in credit standards, allowing us to identify a structural shock that negatively affects the credit supply. The instrument accounts for mandatory rotations of external auditors within credit institutions of nine euro-area countries. By estimating local projections, this paper finds that an unexpected supervisory measure at the banking-system level features significant dynamic causal effects at the macroeconomic level, which are also state-dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2022. "Supervisory shocks to banks' credit standards and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:58:y:2022:i:c:s1572308921001248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100966
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    2. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2021. "Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply; Banking supervision; Instrumental variables; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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