Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy
AbstractIn this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of OECD countries. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact, and also confirm those of our earlier papers that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18578.
Date of creation: Nov 2012
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- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-12-15 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-12-15 (Public Economics)
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- Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2013. "Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records," CESifo Working Paper Series 4311, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gerald Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013.
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- Gerald Carlino & Robert Inman, 2013. "Local deficits and local jobs: can U.S. statess stabilize their own economies?," Working Papers 13-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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