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Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of OECD countries. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact, and also confirm those of our earlier papers that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18578.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Publication status: published as Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-46, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18578

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References

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  1. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2013. "Estimating the effects of coordinated fiscal actions in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-121.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  6. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-72, September.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  8. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
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  1. Quelles sont les répercussions internationales des plans d’austérité ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-01-07 19:29:00
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Cited by:
  1. Gerald Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Local Deficits and Local Jobs: Can U.S. States Stabilize Their Own Economies?," NBER Working Papers 18930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 18779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2013. "Interest rates, government purchases and the Taylor rule in recessions and expansions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 382-392.
  4. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 13/136, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
  6. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2013. "Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records," CESifo Working Paper Series 4311, CESifo Group Munich.

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