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Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices

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  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • O'Reilly, Gerard

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

Property prices across many OECD countries have witnessed remarkable increases over the past 10 years. Two factors frequently posited for this boom are higher income levels and the benign interest rate environment experienced in many of these countries. However, empirical models of house prices struggle to achieve credible results concerning the impact of interest rates with coefficients that are frequently insignificant or of the wrong sign. In this paper we propose an intuitive theoretical model of house prices where the demand for housing is driven by how much individuals can borrow from financial institutions. This level of borrowing depends on disposable income levels and current interest rates. We empirically test this model by applying it to the Irish property market. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow with plausible and statistically significant adjustment to this long run equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 15/RT/06.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:15/rt/06

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References

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  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
  5. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  6. Denis Conniffe & David Duffy, 1999. "Irish House Price Indices ? Methodological Issues," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) WP110, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
  9. repec:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/04 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
  11. David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  13. repec:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/98 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
  17. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
  18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  19. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth n890699, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Daft House Price Report: 2010:Q2
    by Karl Whelan in The Irish Economy on 2010-07-13 11:46:15
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carmona Pidal & Markus Lampe & Joan R. Roses, 2011. "Spanish housing markets during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process," Working Papers in Economic History wp11-08, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
  2. Diarmaid Addison-Smyth & Kieran McQuinn, 2010. "Quantifying Revenue Windfalls from the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 201-233.
  3. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
  4. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
  6. Juan Carmona Pidal & Markus Lampe & Joan R. Rosés, 2012. "Housing markets during the rural-urban transition : evidence from early 20th century Spain," Working Papers in Economic History wp12-10, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
  7. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  8. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran & Stuart, Rebecca, 2013. "Exploring the steady-state relationship between credit and GDP for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1531, European Central Bank.
  10. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, March.
  11. Karl Whelan, 2010. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254.
  12. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  13. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020," HERMIN Economic Papers, HERMIN 4-2012, HERMIN.
  14. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.

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