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Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices

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  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • O'Reilly, Gerard

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

Property prices across many OECD countries have witnessed remarkable increases over the past 10 years. Two factors frequently posited for this boom are higher income levels and the benign interest rate environment experienced in many of these countries. However, empirical models of house prices struggle to achieve credible results concerning the impact of interest rates with coefficients that are frequently insignificant or of the wrong sign. In this paper we propose an intuitive theoretical model of house prices where the demand for housing is driven by how much individuals can borrow from financial institutions. This level of borrowing depends on disposable income levels and current interest rates. We empirically test this model by applying it to the Irish property market. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow with plausible and statistically significant adjustment to this long run equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 15/RT/06.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:15/rt/06

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Daft House Price Report: 2010:Q2
    by Karl Whelan in The Irish Economy on 2010-07-13 11:46:15
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
  2. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  3. Karl Whelan, 2009. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," Working Papers 200914, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  4. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
  5. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455–477.
  6. Diarmaid Addison-Smyth & Kieran McQuinn, 2010. "Quantifying Revenue Windfalls from the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 201-233.
  7. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020," HERMIN Economic Papers 4-2012, HERMIN.
  8. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  9. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.
  10. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
  11. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Juan Carmona Pidal & Markus Lampe & Joan Ramón Rosés, 2012. "Housing Markets during the Rural-Urban Transition: Evidence from early 20th Century Spain," Working Papers 0030, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  13. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, March.
  14. Juan Carmona Pidal & Markus Lampe & Joan R. Roses, 2011. "Spanish housing markets during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process," Working Papers in Economic History wp11-08, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.

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