Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals
AbstractWe propose a novel framework to assess financial system risk. Using a dynamic factor framework based on state-space methods, we construct coincident measures (‘thermometers’) and a forward looking indicator for the likelihood of simultaneous failure of a large number of financial intermediaries. The indicators are based on latent macro-financial and credit risk components for a large data set comprising the U.S., the EU-27 area, and the respective rest of the world. Credit risk conditions can significantly and persistently de-couple from macro-financial fundamentals. Such decoupling can serve as an early warning signal for macro-prudential policy. JEL Classification: G21, C33
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1327.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-23 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ORE-2011-04-23 (Operations Research)
- NEP-RMG-2011-04-23 (Risk Management)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2013. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Pinar Yesin, 2013.
"Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe,"
13.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 219-236.
- Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2012.
"Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2012-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka, 2013. "Financial Stress Spillover and Financial Linkages between the Euro Area and the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 46-64, March.
- Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2013.
"“How systemic is Spain for Europe?”,"
IREA Working Papers
201301, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2013.
- Ivailo Arsov & Elie Canetti & Laura E. Kodres & Srobona Mitra, 2013. ""Near-Coincident" Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 13/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.