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Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates

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Author Info

  • Koopman, Siem Jan
  • Lucas, André
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We propose a novel time series panel data framework for estimating and forecasting time-varying corporate default rates subject to observed and unobserved risk factors. In an empirical application for a U.S. dataset, we find a large and significant role for a dynamic frailty component even after controlling for more than 80% of the variation in more than 100 macro-financial covariates and other standard risk factors. We emphasize the need for a latent component to prevent a downward bias in estimated default rate volatility and in estimated probabilities of extreme default losses on portfolios of U.S. debt. The latent factor does not substitute for a single omitted macroeconomic variable. We argue that it captures different omitted effects at different times. We also provide empirical evidence that default and business cycle conditions partly depend on different processes. In an out-of-sample forecasting study for point-in-time default probabilities, we obtain mean absolute error reductions of more than forty percent when compared to models with observed risk factors only. The forecasts are relatively more accurate when default conditions diverge from aggregate macroeconomic conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 162 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 312-325

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:162:y:2011:i:2:p:312-325

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Systematic default risk Frailty-correlated defaults State space methods Credit risk management;

References

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  1. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
  2. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "The Empirical Risk-Return Relation: A Factor Analysis Approach," NBER Working Papers 11477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Boissay, Frédéric & Gropp, Reint, 2007. "Trade credit defaults and liquidity provision by firms," Working Paper Series 0753, European Central Bank.
  4. Peter Exterkate & Dick Van Dijk & Christiaan Heij & Patrick J. F. Groenen, 2013. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data‐Rich Environment Using the Factor‐Augmented Nelson–Siegel Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 193-214, 04.
  5. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, October.
  6. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  8. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas & Robert J. Daniels, 2005. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 055, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  11. Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  13. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  15. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  16. McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
  17. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
  18. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2011. "Observation Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-042/2/DSF16, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Alexander Kremer & Rafael Weißbach, 2013. "Consistent estimation for discretely observed Markov jump processes with an absorbing state," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 993-1007, November.
  3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2011. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-072, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2013. "Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme," Working Paper Series 1587, European Central Bank.
  5. Xiao, Tim, 2013. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," MPRA Paper 47136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2014. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 781-794.
  7. Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C., 2013. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," MPRA Paper 48376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2011. "Observation Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-042/2/DSF16, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
  10. repec:syb:wpbsba:03/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. James Wolter, 2013. "Separating the impact of macroeconomic variables and global frailty in event data," Economics Series Working Papers 667, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
  13. Paola Cerchiello & Paolo Giudici, 2014. "Conditional graphical models for systemic risk measurement," DEM Working Papers Series 087, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

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