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Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada

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Author Info

  • Miroslav Misina
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Borio and Lowe (2002) answer this question in the affirmative for a sample of 34 countries, but the question is surprisingly difficult to answer for individual developed countries that have faced very few, if any, financial crises in the past. To circumvent this problem, we focus on financial stress and ask whether credit and asset price movements can help predict it. To measure financial stress, we use the Financial Stress Index (FSI) developed by Illing and Liu (2006). Other innovations include the estimation and forecasting using both linear and endogenous threshold models, and a wide range of asset prices (stock and housing prices, for example). The exercise is performed for Canada, but the methodology is suitable for any country that fits the above description.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-10.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-10

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Related research

Keywords: Credit and credit aggregates; Financial stability;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
  4. Jahn, Nadya & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis," Discussion Papers 27/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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