Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis
AbstractOver the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in Germany between 1995 and 2010. Explaining this measure by means of panel regression techniques, we identify significant macroprudential early warning indicators (such as asset price indicators, leading indicators for the business cycle and monetary indicators) and spillover effects. Whereas international spillovers play a significant role across all banking sectors, regional spillovers and the credit-to-GDP ratio are more important for cooperative banks and less relevant for commercial banks. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 27/2012.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Early Warning Indicators; Banking System Stability; Regional Spillover Effects; Panel Regression Techniques;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-11-11 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-11-11 (Central Banking)
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