Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Matkovskyy, Roman

Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of a country against the possibility of financial perturbations appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampler technique is used to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model of the IFS of South Africa for the period 1990Q1-2011Q1 and to forecast its value over the period 2011Q2-2017Q1. It is shown that the IFS could capture the disturbances in the financial system and the BVAR models with the non-informative and Minnesota priors could predict the future dynamics of IFS with sufficient accuracy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42173/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42173.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42173

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Financial safety; index of financial safety (IFS); Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model; MCMC; Gibbs sampler; South Africa;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  3. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
  4. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  6. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Bank Regulation, Property Prices And Early Warning Systems For Banking Crises In Oecd Countries," NIESR Discussion Papers 2201, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  8. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Henry Kaiser, 1958. "The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 187-200, September.
  10. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  11. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, 03.
  12. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Casella, George & Robert, Christian P., 2011. "A Short History of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Subjective Recollections from Incomplete Data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/3549, Paris Dauphine University.
  14. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
  16. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  17. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010104 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  19. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2008. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada," Working Papers 08-10, Bank of Canada.
  22. Lestano & Jan Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2004. "Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries," International Finance 0409001, EconWPA.
  23. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "Forecasting the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa using neural networks," MPRA Paper 42153, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.