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A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Christopher A. Sims
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This model extends one originally constructed by Robert Litterman in 1980 and used continuously since then to prepare quarterly forecasts. The current version is 3 variables larger than Litterman’s original model, and it now allows time variation in coefficients, predictable time variation in forecast error variance, and non-normality in disturbances. Despite this elaboration the model in a sense has just 12 parameters free to fit the behavior of 9 variables in 9 equations. The paper reports the model structure and summarizes some aspects of its recent forecasting performance.
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number
14.
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Date of creation: 1989Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:14Contact details of provider: Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291 Phone: (612) 204-5000 Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/ More information through EDIRC
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For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
Keywords: Forecasting ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience ,"
Working Papers
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: John Geweke, 1992.
"Priors for macroeconomic time series and their application ,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
64, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy ,"
European Economic Review ,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Bernanke, Ben S., 1986.
"Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation ,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy ,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004.
"Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions ,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Amos Golan & Jeffrey Perloff, 2002.
"Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method ,"
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series
956, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: James Hamilton, 1999.
"A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
1999-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
James D. Hamilton, 1999.
"A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
99-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!] Hamilton, James D, 2001.
"A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005.
"Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis ,"
NBER Working Papers
11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006.
"Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models ,"
Working Paper Series
196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999.
"Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality ,"
Economic Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
[Downloadable!]
Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008.
"Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
[Downloadable!]
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001.
"Vector Autoregressions ,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives ,
American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999.
"Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model ,"
Working Paper
99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
[Downloadable!]
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
Manfred Deistler & Klaus Neusser, 2004.
"Prognose uni- und multivariater Zeitreihen ,"
Diskussionsschriften
dp0401, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
[Downloadable!]
John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999.
"Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models ,"
Working Paper
99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
[Downloadable!]
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