This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher A. Sims

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This model extends one originally constructed by Robert Litterman in 1980 and used continuously since then to prepare quarterly forecasts. The current version is 3 variables larger than Litterman’s original model, and it now allows time variation in coefficients, predictable time variation in forecast error variance, and non-normality in disturbances. Despite this elaboration the model in a sense has just 12 parameters free to fit the behavior of 9 variables in 9 equations. The paper reports the model structure and summarizes some aspects of its recent forecasting performance.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/DP/DP14.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 14.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:14

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Forecasting;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Geweke, 1992. "Priors for macroeconomic time series and their application," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 64, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004. "Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Amos Golan & Jeffrey Perloff, 2002. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 956, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James Hamilton, 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Manfred Deistler & Klaus Neusser, 2004. "Prognose uni- und multivariater Zeitreihen," Diskussionsschriften dp0401, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
  12. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to register as authors.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.