Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Anandamayee Majumdar

    ()
    (Department of Biostatistics, University of North Texas Health Science Center)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

Abstract

This paper uses small set of variables-- real GDP, the inflation rate, and the short-term interest rate -- and a rich set of models -- athoeretical and theoretical, linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models -- to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the US real GDP. Comparing the performance by root mean squared errors of the models to the benchmark random-walk model, the two theoretical models, especially the nonlinear model, perform well on the average across all forecast horizons in out-of-sample forecasts, although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear athoeretical models perform the best. The nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante forecast of the Great Recession, suggesting that developing forward-looking, microfounded, nonlinear, dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium models of the economy, may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://web.unlv.edu/projects/RePEc/pdf/1210.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1210.

as in new window
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1210

Contact details of provider:
Phone: (702) 895-3776
Fax: (702) 895-1354
Web page: http://business.unlv.edu/econ/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Great Recession;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gordon, S.F. & Filardo, A.J., 1993. "Business Cycle Durations," Papers 9328, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
  2. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 200927, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Philip Rothman, . "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  4. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
  5. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
  6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 1103, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  7. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
  8. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "On the Determination of the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 83, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Paper Series 42_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  10. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  11. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
  12. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
  13. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, 03.
  14. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
  15. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  16. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  17. Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Working Papers 11-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. D Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  20. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
  21. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  22. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  23. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
  24. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  25. Diebold & Rudebusch, . "Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective," Home Pages _061, University of Pennsylvania.
  26. Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  27. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
  28. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  29. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
  30. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  34. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  35. Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 561, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Nov 2004.
  36. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
  37. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
  38. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  39. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  40. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
  41. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan Francisco, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  43. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
  44. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, 2005. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 891-910.
  45. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
  46. Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005. "Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
  47. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December.
  48. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2009. "On the statistical identification of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 99-115, May.
  49. Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993. "Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-39, July.
  50. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  52. Spencer, David E., 1993. "Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-421, November.
  53. Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
  54. Pichler Paul, 2008. "Forecasting with DSGE Models: The Role of Nonlinearities," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, July.
  55. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," MPRA Paper 21122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 467, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  57. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  58. Andersson, Michael K & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Bayesian forecast combination for VAR models," Working Paper Series 216, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  59. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  60. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  61. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  62. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  63. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  64. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May.
  65. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Robinson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.