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Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation

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Author Info
Kenny, Geoff (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
Meyler, Aidan (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
Quinn, Terry (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

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Abstract

In this paper we focus on the development of multiple time series models for forecasting Irish Inflation. The Bayesian approach to the estimation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models is employed. This allows the estimated models combine the evidence in the data with any prior information which may also be available. A large selection of inflation indicators are assessed as potential candidates for inclusion in a VAR. The results confirm the significant improvement in forecasting performance which can be obtained by the use of Bayesian techniques. In general, however, forecasts of inflation contain a high degree of uncertainty. The results are also consistent with previous research in the Central Bank of Ireland which stresses a strong role for the exchange rate and foreign prices as a determinant of Irish prices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 4/RT/98.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/98

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Forecasting and policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  2. Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "The accuracy of two forecasting techniques: some evidence and an interpretation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 20-31.
  6. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Tymo Tyrväinen, 1998. "Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries," Banco de España Working Papers 9823, Banco de España.
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  7. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1994. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dotsey, Michael & Ireland, Peter, 1996. "The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 29-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Nations: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 1024, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Rumler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time Series Models to Forecast Inflation," Working Papers 148, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  4. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/99, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  6. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Bettina Landau & Moreno Roma & Frauke Skudelny, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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