A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model
AbstractA model for U.S. macroeconomic time series that has been used for forecasting for several years is described in some detail. The model is a multivariate Bayesian autoregression, with allowance for conditional heteroskedasticity, stochastic time-variation in parameters, and non-normality of disturbances. It specifies the prior distribution in ways that improve on previous Bayesian vector autoregression specifications in realism and forecasting performance. The model's record of forecasting in recent years is displayed and discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1034.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1992
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, NBER, 1993, pp. 179-214
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 179-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992.
"Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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- Geweke, John, 1994.
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Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 609-632, August.
- John Geweke, 1992. "Priors for macroeconomic time series and their application," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 64, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986.
"Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience,"
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
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