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A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Christopher A. Sims
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A model for U.S. macroeconomic time series that has been used for forecasting for several years is described in some detail. The model is a multivariate Bayesian autoregression, with allowance for conditional heteroskedasticity, stochastic time-variation in parameters, and non-normality of disturbances. It specifies the prior distribution in ways that improve on previous Bayesian vector autoregression specifications in realism and forecasting performance. The model's record of forecasting in recent years is displayed and discussed.
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number
1034.
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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1992Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1034Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA Phone: (203) 432-3702 Fax: (203) 432-6167 Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ More information through EDIRC
Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Glena Ames).
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
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Other versions: John Geweke, 1992.
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Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
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Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
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John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999.
"Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models ,"
Working Paper
99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
[Downloadable!]
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