Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices
AbstractExamining stationarity is of particular importance and represents the first step in empirical time-series research. Non-stationarity invalidates many of the results obtained from standard techniques and, therefore, requires special treatment. Because oil prices play an important role in affecting economic variables, this paper examines the stationarity of real oil prices (Brent, Dubai, WTI and the World) over the period 1973:2–2011:2. Real oil prices are expressed in the currencies of seven Asian countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and in the U.S. dollar. While using linear unit root tests without structural breaks shows no evidence of stationarity, allowing for breaks shows very limited evidence of stationarity. We argue that these results are attributed to the presence of nonlinearities in the behavior of oil prices. Testing for nonlinearity shows significant evidence of nonlinearity in all the cases with evidence of exponential smooth transition autoregression (ESTAR) nonlinearity-type in most cases. Applying unit root tests that account for two types of nonlinearities (smooth transition and nonlinear deterministic trends) reveals evidence of stationarity in all the cases.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Oil prices; Nonlinear unit root tests; Nonlinear deterministic trends; Smooth transition autoregression;
Other versions of this item:
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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