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What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data

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  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Zorn, Peter

Abstract

The ifo Investment Survey asks firms in the German manufacturing sector about the importance of sales, technological factors, finance, return expectations, and macroeconomic policy for their investment activity in a given year. We show that these subjective investment determinants 1) capture economically what their labels suggest, and 2) have strong explanatory power for aggregate manufacturing investment growth fluctuations. In a second step, we use these determinants to identify aggregate demand and aggregate technology shocks and argue that the bulk of the variance of both aggregate manufacturing investment and output growth fluctuations (as much as approximately two thirds in both cases) is explained by aggregate demand shocks. Consistent with neoclassical views, however, technological factors are the most important investment determinant on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data," Munich Reprints in Economics 84785, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:84785
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    3. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    4. Marek Ignaszak & Petr Sedlacek, 2021. "Profitability, Productivity and Growth," Discussion Papers 2115, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Giordano, Claire & Marinucci, Marco & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The macro determinants of firms' and households' investment: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-133.
    6. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2022. "Firm Expectations and Economic Activity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2396-2439.
    7. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-79.
    8. Christian Matthes & Felipe Schwartzman, 2019. "What Do Sectoral Dynamics Tell Us About the Origins of Business Cycles?," Working Paper 19-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Michał Gradzewicz, 2022. "How do firms respond to demand and supply shocks?," KAE Working Papers 2022-075, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    10. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey," Working Papers 15, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    12. Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Business cycle synchronization or business cycle transmission? The effect of the German slowdown on the Italian economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1346, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Andreas Peichl & Paul Schüle & Lukas Menkhoff, 2022. "Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes," CESifo Working Paper Series 9786, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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