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Time-varying business volatility, price setting, and the real effects of monetary policy

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  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Born, Benjamin
  • Elstner, Steffen
  • Grimme, Christian

Abstract

Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the price setting behavior of firms. In a second step, we use a calibrated New Keynesian business cycle model to gauge the effects of time-varying volatility on the transmission of monetary policy to output. Our results are twofold. Heightened business volatility increases the probability of a price change, though the effect is small: the tripling of volatility during the recession of 08/09 caused the average quarterly likelihood of a price change to increase from 31.6% to 32.3%. Second, the effects of this increase in volatility on monetary policy are also small; the initial effect of a 25 basis point monetary policy shock to output declines from 0.347% to 0.341%. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in its series Working Papers with number 01/2013.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:012013

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Keywords: survey data; time-varying volatility; price setting; New Keynesian model; monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2014. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," MPRA Paper 57223, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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