Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Time-varying business volatility, price setting, and the real effects of monetary policy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Born, Benjamin
  • Elstner, Steffen
  • Grimme, Christian

Abstract

Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the price setting behavior of firms. In a second step, we use a calibrated New Keynesian business cycle model to gauge the effects of time-varying volatility on the transmission of monetary policy to output. Our results are twofold. Heightened business volatility increases the probability of a price change, though the effect is small: the tripling of volatility during the recession of 08/09 caused the average quarterly likelihood of a price change to increase from 31.6% to 32.3%. Second, the effects of this increase in volatility on monetary policy are also small; the initial effect of a 25 basis point monetary policy shock to output declines from 0.347% to 0.341%. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/77949/1/755308565.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in its series Working Papers with number 01/2013.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:012013

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 65180 Wiesbaden
Phone: +49 611 - 752390
Fax: +49 611 - 752538
Email:
Web page: http://www.sachverstaendigenrat-wirtschaft.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: survey data; time-varying volatility; price setting; New Keynesian model; monetary policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," Working Papers 05-4, Bank of Canada.
  2. Robert Lucas & Mike Golosov, 2004. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," 2004 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  4. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2014. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  8. Loupias, C. & Sevestre, P., 2010. "Costs, demand, and producer price changes," Working papers 273, Banque de France.
  9. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 12824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
  12. Joseph Vavra, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
  13. Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2007. "When Do Firms Adjust Prices? Evidence from Micro Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-160, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  14. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-77, June.
  16. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 47, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  17. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms' Optimism and Pessimism," CESifo Working Paper Series 4176, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. repec:aei:rpaper:25796 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. Panousi, Vasia & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2009. "Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership," MPRA Paper 24239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Harald Stahl, 2010. "Price adjustment in German manufacturing: evidence from two merged surveys," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 67-92.
  23. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
  24. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  25. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2012. "Financial frictions and fluctuations in volatility," Staff Report 466, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Jovanovic Mario & Zimmermann Tobias, 2010. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, July.
  27. Joseph Vavra, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Uncertainty: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," 2011 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  28. Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12158, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:012013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.