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Learning to Price

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  • Julio Blanco

    (New York University)

  • Isaac Baley

    (New York University)

Abstract

Is monetary policy less effective in increasing real output during uncertain times? We argue that firm uncertainty adds flexibility to the aggregate price level and thus the effects of monetary policy are reduced in times of high uncertainty. To construct the argument we develop a price-setting model where firms have imperfect information about their nominal cost and must forecast it to set their prices. Our measure of uncertainty is firms' forecast variance and it is the result of an endogenous learning process. In normal times, the information friction delays the response of prices to a monetary shock and produces large and persistent real effects on output. In highly uncertain times, however, these real effects are reduced. The reason is that highly uncertain firms become more responsive to new information -which comes with noise- and adjust their prices more often.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 663.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:663

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  1. Mirko Wiederholt & Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," 2005 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  19. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Uncertain times and price setting
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2014-01-20 16:13:00
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Cited by:
  1. Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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