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Time Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel

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  • Kevin D. Salyer
  • Gabriel Lee

Abstract

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moments enter the economy's equilibrium policy functions. We then demonstrate that an increase in uncertainty causes, ceteris paribus, a fall in investment supply. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates - a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the economy. However, the shocks to uncertainty imply a quantitatively small role for uncertainty over the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 137.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:137

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Keywords: agency costs; business cycles; time varying uncertainty;

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  1. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  2. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June.
  4. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stepahnie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 5, pages 125-186 Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-39, June.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C99-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L., 1995. "Liquidation costs and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-69, September.
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dorofeenko, Viktor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2005. "Agency Costs and Investment Behavior," Economics Series 182, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Dorofeenko, Victor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2010. "Risk Shocks and Housing Markets," Economics Series 249, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  3. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. den Haan, 2006. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 06-45, Bank of Canada.
  4. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  5. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England working papers 496, Bank of England.
  6. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Neil, 2010. "Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800," MPRA Paper 25465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Viktor Dorofeenko & Gabriel S. Lee & Kevin D. Salyer, 2011. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis‐Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 151-169, 05.
  8. Ruediger Bachmann & Peter Zorn, 2013. "What Drives Aggregate Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4218, CESifo Group Munich.

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