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New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations

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Abstract

We document the experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in changing its inflation target, particularly the effects on inflation expectations. Firstly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model is used to highlight expectation-formation in the transmission following a change in the inflation target. Secondly, a Nelson-Siegel model is used to combine a number of inflation expectation surveys into a continuous curve where expectations can be plotted as a function of the forecast horizon. Using estimates of long-run inflation expectations derived from the Nelson-Siegel model, we find that numerical changes in the inflation target result in an immediate change in inflation expectations.

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  • Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2016/07
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    Cited by:

    1. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 707-755.
    4. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    5. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott & Adam Richardson, 2016. "Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-12, March.
    7. Neroli Austin & Geordie Reid, 2017. "NZSIM: A model of the New Zealand economy for forecasting and policy analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 80, pages 1-14, January.
    8. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    9. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    10. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2023. "Do consumers actually monitor the inflation rate? Evidence from New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 1-8, January.
    11. Michelle Lewis, 2016. "Inflation expectations curve: a tool for monitoring inflation expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. John McDermott & Rebecca Williams, 2018. "Inflation Targeting in New Zealand: An Experience in Evolution," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Apel, Mikael & Claussen, Carl Andreas, 2017. "Inflation targets and intervals – an overview of the issues," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 1, pages 83-103.
    14. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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