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ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

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Author Info

  • José Dorich
  • Michael K. Johnston
  • Rhys R. Mendes
  • Stephen Murchison
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada. ToTEM has been improved along a number of dimensions, with important changes to the model structure, including: (i) multiple interest rates, (ii) sector-specific demand specifications for consumption, housing investment and inventory investment, (iii) a role for financial wealth in household consumption, and (iv) rule-of-thumb price and wage setters. These new features remove some of the restrictions on model dynamics implied by assumptions in ToTEM, making ToTEM II more general and flexible than its predecessor. Furthermore, most of ToTEM II’s parameters are now formally estimated using full information estimation techniques, leading to significantly improved in-sample goodness of fit. The report discusses the model’s estimation and reviews the most important changes in the model’s properties. Finally, some important applications of ToTEM II in addressing recent policy questions are provided.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Technical Reports with number 100.

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Length: 88 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:100

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Keywords: Economic models; Business fluctuations and cycles;

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References

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  1. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 13806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 2005. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 213-242, January.
  4. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  5. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Andrew T. Levin & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Tack Yun, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 2008-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Paul Fenton & Stephen Murchison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Autumn), pages 5-18.
  8. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
  9. Brahima Coulibaly & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2011. "Trade credit and international trade during the 2008-09 global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2011. "Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Summer), pages 3-10.
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Cited by:
  1. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2014. "A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 14-6, Bank of Canada.
  2. Yahong Zhang, 2013. "Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 13-40, Bank of Canada.

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