IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v159y2023i1d10.1007_s10290-022-00466-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Andrej Drygalla

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH))

Abstract

Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014. Both contributed to significant depreciation pressures on the ruble and led the central bank to give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this work estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation and output. Simulations for the estimated actual strategy and alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of inflation targeting. Strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil prove to be inferior.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Drygalla, 2023. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 185-214, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:159:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10290-022-00466-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-022-00466-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10290-022-00466-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10290-022-00466-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2018. "Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 128-151, October.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    11. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128, January.
    12. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    15. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    16. Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    17. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    18. Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
    19. Montoro, Carlos & Ortiz, Marco, 2016. "Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy design: a market microstructure analysis," Working Papers 2016-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
    21. Simona Malovana, 2015. "Foreign Exchange Interventions at the Zero Lower Bound in the Czech Economy: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers IES 2015/13, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2015.
    22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    23. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    3. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    4. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    5. Drygalla, Andrej & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kiesel, Konstantin, 2020. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy In An Estimated Dsge Model—The Case Of The German Stimulus Packages During The Great Recession," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1315-1345, September.
    6. Montoro, Carlos & Ortiz, Marco, 2023. "The portfolio balance channel of capital flows and foreign exchange intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Črt Lenarčič, 2018. "Oil Shocks and the Excise Duty Tax in a DSGE Model Setting," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 49-69, November.
    8. Mariusz Górajski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2022. "Which hallmarks of optimal monetary policy rules matter in Poland? A stochastic dominance approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(2), pages 149-182.
    9. Górajski Mariusz & Kuchta Zbigniew, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in DSGE models," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    10. Shulgin, A., 2017. "Two-Dimensional Monetary Policy Shocks in DSGE-Model Estimated for Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 75-115.
    11. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    12. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. PLASMANS, Joseph & FORNERO, Jorge & MICHALAK, Tomasz, 2006. "A microfounded sectoral model for open economies," Working Papers 2007013, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    14. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Carlos Montoro & Marco Ortiz, 2020. "The Portfolio Channel of Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention in A Small Open Economy," Working Papers 168, Peruvian Economic Association.
    17. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    18. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    19. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    20. Bazhenova Olena & Bazhenova Yuliya, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of External Shocks on Economy of Ukraine: Dsge Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 64-83, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Exchange rate interventions; Oil price; Capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:159:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10290-022-00466-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.