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Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia

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  • Semko Roman

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Abstract

The goal of the paper is to explain and analyze whether Central Bank of Russia should include commodity prices into the lists of variables they try to respond. We augmented New Keynesian DSGE small open economy model of Dib (2008) with the oil stabilization fund and new Taylortype monetary policy rule and estimated the model using Bayesian econometrics. The results show that Central Bank’s mild response to the oil price changes may be desired in terms of minimizing fluctuations of inflation and output only in the case when stabilization fund would be absent, while this response is redundant when “excess” oil revenues can be saved in the fund.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 13/03e.

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Date of creation: 03 2013
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/03e

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Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 1, Mazepy Str., suite 202, Kyiv, 01010 Ukraine
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Cited by:
  1. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2014. "Euler equation with habits and measurement errors: estimates on Russian micro data," HSE Working papers WP BRP 52/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  2. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.

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