Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Charl Jooste, Guangling (Dave) Liu and Ruthira Naraidoo

Abstract

This paper is the first one to analyse the effect of aggregate government spending and taxes on output for South Africa using three types of a calibrated DSGE model and more data driven models such as a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) and a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) to capture possible asymmetries and time variation of fiscal impulses. The impulse responses indicate first, that increases in government expenditure have a positive impact, albeit (at times) less than unity, on GDP in the short run; second, over the long run, the impact of government expenditure on GDP is insignificant; and third, increases in taxes decreases GDP over the short run, while having negligible effects over longer horizons.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econrsa.org/node/720
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 351.

as in new window
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:351

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Rule-of-thumb consumers; Fiscal multiplier; Government spending; TVP-VAR; SVECM;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
  2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias J. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy," Kiel Working Papers 1592, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December.
  5. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  8. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson & Daniel M. Sturm, 2010. "Political Competition, Policy and Growth: Theory and Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1009, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010. "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010," NBER Working Papers 15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2002. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 911, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2005.
  11. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  12. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2006. "A Small-Scale DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers 200621, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  13. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2007. "Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6430, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  15. Richard Clarida & Joe Prendergast, 1999. "Fiscal Stance and the Real Exchange: Some Empirical Estimates," NBER Working Papers 7077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 12822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  18. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  21. Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg, 2014. "The democratic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 141-181, June.
  22. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1989. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 3206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
  25. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
  26. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
  27. Barro, Robert J, 1996. " Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
  28. Devereux, Michael B & Head, Allen C & Lapham, Beverly J, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 233-54, May.
  29. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  30. Christian Morrisson & Fabrice Murtin, 2009. "The Century of Education," CEP Discussion Papers dp0934, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  31. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers, Center for Global Development 125, Center for Global Development.
  32. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2012. "Nonlinearities And The Sustainability Of The Government'S Intertemporal Budget Constraint," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 988-999, October.
  33. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  34. Edward Glaeser & Giacomo Ponzetto & Andrei Shleifer, 2006. "Why Does Democracy Need Education?," NBER Working Papers 12128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
  36. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  39. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00586751 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Jess Benhabib & Alejandro Corvalan & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Reestablishing the Income-Democracy Nexus," NBER Working Papers 16832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "From Education to Democracy?," NBER Working Papers 11204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Roberto perotti, 2011. "Expectations and Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 429, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
  2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Working Papers 201323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2013. "A Time-Varying Approach to Analysing Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices in South Africa," Working Papers 201303, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working papers, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics 2012-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yoemna Mosaval).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.