IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/koe/wpaper/2009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycle Spatial Synchronization: Measuring a Synchronization Parameter

Author

Listed:
  • Shinya Fukui

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University / Senior Researcher, Osaka Prefectural Government, Japan)

Abstract

With decreasing comprehensive transportation costs, business cycle synchronization seems to be increasing. In such circumstances, we estimate business cycle synchronization of the Asia-Pacific region and European region. We apply the spatial generalized autoregressive score (Spatial GAS) method to measure the time-varying business cycle synchronization. Estimated business cycle synchronization parameters show positive high values in periods of economic turmoil, such as the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in 2008 by which high volatility is accompanied. With the recent increase in economic integration, exogenous shocks increased geographically and economically closer countries’ business cycle synchronization to each other, and such shocks cause economic instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinya Fukui, 2020. "Business Cycle Spatial Synchronization: Measuring a Synchronization Parameter," Discussion Papers 2009, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:2009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.kobe-u.ac.jp/RePEc/koe/wpaper/2020/2009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    3. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, February.
    4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    5. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Schaumburg, Julia, 2016. "Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 211-223.
    6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
    7. Harald Badinger, 2013. "Measuring the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 12-30, January.
    8. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    10. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    11. Gong, Chi & Kim, Soyoung, 2018. "Regional business cycle synchronization in emerging and developing countries: Regional or global integration? Trade or financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 42-57.
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Ikeda, Taro & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2012. "International transmission of business cycles: Evidence from dynamic correlations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 252-255.
    14. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
    15. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    16. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
    17. Selover, David D. & Jensen, Roderick V., 1999. "'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 591-618, February.
    18. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    19. Crosby, Mark, 2003. "Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-44, July.
    20. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?—A Panel Data Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 318-332, March.
    21. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2008. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-108/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Martins, Rodrigo, 2009. "Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 106-108, February.
    23. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 244-268, July.
    24. Duval, Romain & Li, Nan & Saraf, Richa & Seneviratne, Dulani, 2016. "Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 251-262.
    25. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
    26. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    27. Rana, Pradumna Bickram & Cheng, Tianyin & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2012. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 701-706.
    28. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    3. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    5. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Pedro Cerqueira, 2013. "A closer look at the world business cycle synchronization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 349-363, September.
    8. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2020. "Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 201-222, May.
    9. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    10. Herrerias, M.J. & Ordóñez, J., 2014. "If the United States sneezes, does the world need “pain-killers”?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 159-170.
    11. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    13. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    14. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    15. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    16. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Hui-Ying Sng & Liyu Dou & Pradumna Bickram Rana, 2017. "Catalyst Of Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(03), pages 703-719, June.
    18. Nabil Alimi, 2015. "The Effect of Trade, Specialization and Financial Integration on Business Cycles Synchronization in Some Mediterranean Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 110-118, January.
    19. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2019. "Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 327-359, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:2009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kimiaki Shirahama (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fekobjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.