Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?—A Panel Data Approach
AbstractThis paper re-estimates the correlation between trade and business cycle synchronization. Different from other previous studies, we employ long-run GDP and trade data and use the GDP cross-correlation index a la Cerqueira and Martins (2009) rather than over-time cross-correlations. We find a positive impact of trade on business cycle synchronization particularly in the current wave of globalization, although the inter-war period sees negative impacts. The current economic integration and currency unions also positively affect business cycle synchronization.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.
Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
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Other versions of this item:
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
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