Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches
AbstractIn a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows. JEL Classification: C53, C32, E37, F17
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.
Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323
World trade; Factor models; Forecasts; Time series models; C53; C32; E37; F17;
Other versions of this item:
- Burgert, Matthias & Dées, Stéphane, 2008. "Forecasting world trade: direct versus “bottom-up” approaches," Working Paper Series 0882, European Central Bank.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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