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Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate

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  • Junttila, Juha
  • Korhonen, Marko

Abstract

In this paper we build an open economy extension of the Gordon (1962) valuation model that suggests a simple forecasting system for three macroeconomic variables; the real growth, inflation and real exchange rate. All the forecasting equations in our system utilize current financial market information in the form of dividend yields and short-term interest rate. Our empirical results indicate that these simple forms of financial market information are relevant for forecasting the time-varying underlying trends in the macroeconomic data for the U.K., Eurozone and Japan, when treating the U.S. as the world market.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 281-301

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:281-301

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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Keywords: Stock market Forecasting Macroeconomy Exchange rates Parities;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
  2. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.

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