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Stock market returns, volatility, and future output

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Author Info
Hui Guo

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Abstract

In this article, Hui Guo shows that, if stock volatility follows an AR(1) process, stock market returns relate positively to past volatility but relate negatively to contemporaneous volatility in Merton’s (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model helps explain the recent finding that stock market volatility drives out returns in forecasting real gross domestic product growth because the predictive power of returns is hampered by their positive correlation with past volatility. If the positive relation between returns and past volatility is controlled for, however, the author finds that volatility provides no additional information beyond returns in forecasting output in the post-World War II sample.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 75-86
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:sep:p:75-86:n:v.84no.5

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Keywords: Stock market Capital assets pricing model

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  1. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stanley Fischer & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hui Guo, 2002. "Understanding the risk-return tradeoff in the stock market," Working Papers 2002-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  9. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21, pages 57-108. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Schwert, G. William, 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 83-125. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Owen Lamont, . "Investment Plans and Stock Returns."," CRSP working papers 488, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  20. Yang, Dennis & Zhang, Qiang, 2000. "Drift-Independent Volatility Estimation Based on High, Low, Open, and Close Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 477-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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