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Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns

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Hui Guo
Robert Savickas

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Abstract

We find that the value-weighted idiosyncratic stock volatility and aggregate stock market volatility jointly exhibit strong predictive power for excess stock market returns. The stock market risk-return relation is found to be positive, as stipulated by the CAPM; however, idiosyncratic volatility is negatively related to future stock market returns. Also, idiosyncratic volatility appears to be a pervasive macrovariable, and its forecasting abilities are very similar to those of the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-028.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, January 2006, 24(1), pp. 43-56
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-028

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Keywords: Stock market ; Asset pricing;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Colm Kearney & Valerio Poti, 2006. "Have European Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Investigation of Idiosyncratic and Market Risk in the Euro Area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp132, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Does aggregate relative risk aversion change countercyclically over time? evidence from the stock market," Working Papers 2006-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
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