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Testing The Predictability Of Stock Returns

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Author Info
Markku Lanne

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Abstract

Previous literature indicates that stock returns are predictable by several strongly autocorrelated forecasting variables, especially at longer horizons. It is suggested that this finding is spurious and follows from a neglected near unit root problem. Instead of the commonly used t-test, we propose a test that can be considered as a general test of whether the return can be predicted by any highly persistent variable. Using this test, no predictability is found for U.S. stock return data from the period 1928-1996. Simulation experiments show that the standard t-test clearly overrejects whereas our proposed test controls size much better. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 407-415
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:84:y:2002:i:3:p:407-415

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  1. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "New methods for inference in long-run predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Ai Deng, 2005. "Understanding Spurious Regression in Financial Economics," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-048, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2005. "Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Working Papers 1122, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 928, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Guy Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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