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Residual Risk Revisited

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Author Info
Bruce N. Lehmann
Abstract

The Capital Asset Pricing Model in conjunction with the usual market model assumptions implies that well-diversified portfolios should be mean variance efficient and ,hence, betas computed with respect to such indices should completely explain expected returns on individual assets. In fact, there is now a large body of evidence indicating that the market proxies usually employed in empirical tests are not mean variance efficient. Moreover, there is considerable evidence suggesting that these rejections are in part a consequence of the presence of omitted risk factors which are associated with nonzero risk premia in the residuals from the single index market model. Consequently, the idiosyncratic variances from the one factor model should partially reflect exposure to these omitted sources of systematic risk and,hence, should help explain expected returns. There are two plausible explanations for the inability to obtain statistically reliable estimates of a linear residual risk effect in the previous literature:(1) nonlinearity of the residual risk effect and (2) the inadequacy of the statistical procedures employed to measure it.The results presented below indicate that the econometric methods employed previously are the culprits. Pronounced residual risk effects are found in the whole fifty-four year sample and in numerous five year subperiods as well when weighted least squares estimation is coupled with the appropriate corrections for sampling error in the betas and residual variances of individual security returns. In addition, the evidence suggests that it is important to take account of the nonnormality and heteroskedasticity of security returns when making the appropriate measurement error corrections in cross-sectional regressions. Finally, the results are sensitive to the specification of the model for expected returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1908.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1908

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1973. "A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1233-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N. Bulent & Gultekin, Mustafa N., 1985. "An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-99, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Friend, Irwin & Westerfield, Randolph, 1981. "Risk and capital asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 291-315, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1984. " A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 323-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Friend, Irwin & Westerfield, Randolph & Granito, Michael, 1978. "New Evidence on the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 903-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal, 1994. "Small Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," NBER Technical Working Papers 0156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2005. "Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Driscoll, John & Kraay, Aart, 1995. "Spatial correlations in panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1553, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gregory Connor & Sheng Li, 2009. "Market Dispersion and the Profitability of Hedge Funds," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n2000109, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter: another look," Working Papers 2003-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hui Guo & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Market timing with aggregate and idiosyncratic stock volatilities," Working Papers 2005-073, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1992. "Empirical Testing of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 4043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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