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Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information

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Auffhammer, Maximilian
Carson, Richard T.

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Abstract

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 229-247
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:229-247

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James Roumasset & Kimberly Burnett & Hua Wang, 2007. "Is China’s Growth Sustainable?," Working Papers 200723, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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