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Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Carson, Richard T.

Abstract

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 229-247

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:229-247

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870

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  1. CARSON, RICHARd T. & JEON, YONGIL & McCUBBIN, DONALD R., 1997. "The relationship between air pollution emissions and income: US Data," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 433-450, November.
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  3. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Steinhauser, Ralf, 2006. "The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4878j5w0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
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  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  9. Böhringer, Christoph & Conrad, Klaus & Löschel, Andreas, 2000. "Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation An applied general equilibrium analysis for Germany and India," Discussion Papers 591, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
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  13. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
  14. Christoph Lieb, 2004. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Flow versus Stock Pollution: The Neglect of Future Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(4), pages 483-506, December.
  15. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
  16. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
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  18. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
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  1. Why Climate Scientists Have Consistently UNDERestimated Key Global Warming Impacts
    by Joe Romm in Think Progress on 2013-01-31 23:12:08
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