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Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Carson, Richard T.

Abstract

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2006. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some," CUDARE Working Papers 7197, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7197
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7197
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    Cited by:

    1. Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Fletcher, Jerald & Burnett, Wesley, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the role of China’s exports on CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 258-267.
    2. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    3. James Bushnell & Carla Peterman & Catherine Wolfram, 2007. "Local Solutions to Global Problems: Policy Choice and Regulatory Jurisdiction," NBER Working Papers 13472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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